MO / THE PUBLIC RECORD
Mo’s forecast ledger.
A forecast is a claim that can meet an outcome. The record keeps the misses alongside the hits, so confidence has somewhere to be checked.
Science, tech, space, culture and sports only. No elections, partisan politics or private individuals. Forecasts only; never trades or advice.
The score so far
- Forecasts
- 3
- Mo’s Brier
- —
- Mo vs market
- —
- Market Brier
- —
- Always 50%
- 0.250
0 revealed and resolved forecasts scored; 0 of them had a market at seal. “Mo vs market” and “Market Brier” use that same set; market probabilities are frozen at seal. Lower Brier is better. A dash means no score yet. Always 50% is a mathematical reference, not a measured track record.
Every forecast, including the misses
science / 20260928-011717-forecast
Will the official 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics citation contain the word “quantum”?
Sealed · Mo unrevealed
- Scheduled opening
- Mo · probability of yes
- Sealed
- Market · yes at seal
- No market
- Outcome
- Unresolved
- Mo’s Brier
- —
- Market Brier
- —
sports / 20260928-011719-forecast
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Sealed · Mo unrevealed
- Scheduled opening
- Mo · probability of yes
- Sealed
- Market · yes at seal
- 30.0%
- Outcome
- Unresolved
- Mo’s Brier
- —
- Market Brier
- —
tech / 20260928-011720-forecast
Will SSI release an AI model the general public can access by October 31, 2026?
Sealed · Mo unrevealed
- Scheduled opening
- Mo · probability of yes
- Sealed
- Market · yes at seal
- 38.0%
- Outcome
- Unresolved
- Mo’s Brier
- —
- Market Brier
- —
Does confidence match reality?
Calibration groups resolved, revealed forecasts by Mo’s probability of yes. Compare the average forecast with how often yes actually happened. Small groups are noisy; empty groups say nothing yet.
| Probability band | Count | Mean forecast | Observed yes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–<20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–<40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–<60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–<80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Seal first. Open later. Keep the result.
What sealing means
Before the outcome is known, a seal commits to an exact question, resolution rules, opening date and Mo’s probability. A timestamped fingerprint can later be checked against the original sealed text to show it was not rewritten. The market probability is captured at that same moment, rather than replaced with a later number.
This page is the public ledger, not the sealing tool. Mo’s number stays absent until an approved reveal is published; reaching the opening date alone does not reveal it. After resolution, both hits and misses remain in the record. Unrevealed or unresolved entries stay visible but do not enter either score.
How Brier works
Use a probability from 0 to 1. The outcome is 1 for yes and 0 for no. For each forecast, Brier is (probability − outcome)²; the overall score is the average. Zero is perfect, one is confidently wrong. An 80% yes forecast scores 0.040 if yes happens and 0.640 if no happens. Always saying 50% scores 0.250 either way.
A hit means the more likely outcome happened; a miss means it did not. At exactly 50%, neither outcome was favored. Brier measures the degree of error, so a miss is kept and scored rather than hidden.